Scientists modelling the coronavirus outbreak using detailed simulations of London boroughs say a second wave of cases is likely in ‘almost all cases’ they looked at.
The simulation software predicts how local measures such as closing certain shops or quarantining residents in particular buildings affects the virus’ spread.
It has been released to the public as an open-source tool and has already been used for local authority decisions in north London.
The Flu And Coronavirus Simulator (FACS) team said they were ‘pessimistic’ over the chances of a second wave after looking at full simulations for a number of areas including Brent, Ealing, Hillingdon and Harrow.
More basic models have been released for areas including Westminster, Chelsea, Fulham and Kensington.
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The researchers used data collected from an NHS trust to create an 80-day forecast covering a ‘very wide range of local intervention types’ from shutting pubs to restricting individual households.
They compared a number of scenarios in each area, including zero restrictions, a borough-wide lockdown, and a ‘dynamic’ lockdown using a mix of changing restrictions.
Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in computer simulation at Brunel University part of the FACS team, said: ‘The models definitely see a second wave in almost all cases, although it looks much less deep than the first wave, but it could be more prolonged.’
‘The results between boroughs has so far varied a lot, so we’re trying to understand better why that is.’
The modelling used findings from current scientific studies but can be updated in line with new research by whoever uses the code, Dr Groen added.
He said: ‘So, for example, it’s not totally clear at the moment how many people are wearing masks.
‘We can put in a number, say, 20%, then run the simulation – but if people want to put in a different number, they can just do more runs and vary the number.’
Dr Imran Mahmood, another Brunel researcher on the FACS team, said: ‘The local authority had been considering what changes they needed to make regarding bed capacity in the coming years, and whether they should redirect patients to other hospitals, and these models helped support those decisions.
‘We hope that others can take the codes and model their local areas – so councils could do that or even local volunteers, to get an idea of how COVID-19 is spreading in their local community.
‘It probably can’t be set up by a complete layman, but people familiar with building simulations could do it.’
The FACS project is a collaboration between Brunel’s computer science department and the HiDALGO project, an EU-funded consortium of data analysis firms.
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