Economists have dismissed the Government’s data claiming pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants account for nearly a third of coronavirus cases.
Experts from the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) free-market think tank, said figures presented by professor Chris Witty at a briefing to MPs was based on a sample size of fewer than 100 hospitality venues.
In research published yesterday, the economists called evidence for the assertion that 30% of coronavirus cases are transmitted in pubs and restaurants ‘very weak’.
As well as the small sample size, the IEA told ministers that less than 5% of people contacted by the NHS Test and Trace app had been in contact with someone at a hospitality venue.
Along with many MPs the Institute pointed out that closing pubs and restaurants in Bolton and Leicester had not slowed the spread of coronavirus, with Bolton’s cases rising by 39% this week and Leicester’s rising by 35% this week despite the closures.
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The small sample size and inclusion of a three-month-old study from the US was revealed in a leaked document, showing slides Professor Whitty used yesterday’s briefing which have since been published.
Professor Whitty’s slides, reportedly based on only 400 individual coronavirus cases, say about 41% of transmissions among people under 30 happen in hospitality venues.
This claim, along with other data shown yesterday, appears to contradict Public Health England’s data which says only 4% of cases have been traced back to bars and restaurants.
Head of Lifestyle Economics at the IEA Christopher Snowden warned people mixing in pubs and bars do so in a regulated environment and hospitality closures will just mean more people gathering in homes.
He said: ‘The hospitality industry is Britain’s third-biggest employer and the social benefits of pubs and restaurants are immense.
‘The government should only consider shutting them down again if the evidence is overwhelming.
‘In fact, the evidence that pubs are a significant source of COVID-19 transmission is very weak. The curfew has been counter-productive.
‘Pubs and restaurants are highly regulated environments. Shutting them down again is likely to make the situation worse.’
But Westminster has defended its data with business minister Nadhim Zahawi telling LBC that he used to work in the serving industry and that ‘98 businesses, or 100 businesses is actually quite a representative sample’.
The Prime Minister’s deputy spokesperson stood by the figures and repeated that pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes are responsible for the ‘highest rates of common exposure to Covid-19, especially for those under 30 years old’.
It follows reports yesterday that the NHS coronavirus app has only sent one alert about a coronavirus outbreak in a hospitality venue, despite millions of people using it to check-in to pubs and restaurants since its launch two weeks ago.
Many MPs criticised the Government for how they put their evidence together.
One Tory representative in a traditionally Labour seat told the Telegraph that Westminister had ‘cobbled together this data as a retrospective attempt to justify closing pubs’.
According to the Government’s most recent coronavirus data, 13, 864 people tested positive for coronavirus yesterday taking the country’s total to 575, 679 and 87 people died taking the country’s total to 42, 679.
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