Boris Johnson has warned Conservative MPs that the country could be plunged into a third lockdown unless they back his plan for new tier system when lockdown ends on Wednesday.
Scores of Tory backbenchers have threatened to rebel over the new measures and have reportedly demanded ‘hard evidence’ to convince them that the benefits of the stringent restrictions outweigh the costs.
The Prime Minister is expected to share analysis of the health, economic and social ramifications of the measures taken to suppress Covid-19 ahead of a crunch Commons vote on Tuesday.
Mr Johnson wrote to potential Tory rebels on Saturday evening offering several olive branches to secure their support for the system.
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He announced the prospect of a pre-Christmas review which could potentially see some areas under harsher tier two and three controls being moved down a level where there is ‘robust evidence’ that the virus is in sustained decline.
In his letter to MPs, Mr Johnson warned that the ‘tougher tiers’ are needed ‘if we are to keep the virus under control and avoid either overwhelming the NHS or another national lockdown which is far more damaging and restrictive than these tiers’.
He added: ‘These will not be easy decisions. With Christmas round the corner, and the difficult months of January and February ahead, we will need to continue to exercise caution.’
The letter contained further commitments to provide regular updates of compliance rates, to make greater use of local public health teams to improve contact tracing, increase testing asymptomatic carriers and improve the personalisation of advice to those most at risk.
Conservative MP Peter Bone said he was ‘undecided’ and would make his mind up after seeing the impact assessment, adding: ‘The dilemma I have is do we do more damage by the tiered system of lockdown, or do we do less.’
Another senior Tory backbencher said that his vote was ‘still in the balance’ as he urged Mr Johnson to provide analysis of how the tier restrictions will affect businesses, saying he did not have confidence that the Government was really considering their needs.
Labour has not yet said whether it will support the tier system. If the party votes against it – and if Mr Johnson suffers a major rebellion from his own MPs – the Government could lose the vote.
However, the Prime Minister’s argument for stringent restrictions will be boosted by new figures suggesting coronavirus infections fell by almost a third in England during the second national lockdown.
There was a 30% drop in cases across the country over almost a fortnight this month, the latest interim findings from Imperial College London’s React study showed.
Regionally, the research suggests infections fell by more than half in the North West and North East, and were also down in Yorkshire and the Humber. But prevalence remained high in the East Midlands and West Midlands.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, said the findings suggested the tiers before the beginning of November, followed by the lockdown, had helped bring cases down.
Under the new restrictions only the Isle of Wight, Cornwall, and the Isles of Scilly will be under the lightest tier one controls, while large swathes of the Midlands, North East and North West are in the most restrictive tier three.
In total, 99% of England will enter tier two or three, with tight restrictions on bars and restaurants and a ban on households mixing indoors.
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