The closure of schools amid the coronavirus crisis could lead to a £350 billion long-term loss of earnings, a report has warned.
Pupils who have missed six months of normal schooling could lose approximately £40,000 in income over their lifetime, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) claims.
It recommends a ‘massive injection’ of resources to help pupils catch up, with millions of British children missing out on months of lessons in classrooms. Various options – including allowing students to repeat a whole school year, extending time spent in the classroom or the academic year – should also be ‘on the table’ to increase learning time, the IFS suggests.
The loss of income equates to some £350 billion across the 8.7 million school children in the UK – and even if three-quarters was made up, the total would still be almost £90 billion, the study warns.
Governments across the UK have so far allocated around £1.5 billion towards catch-up support for pupils but the report says the funding ‘is tiny’ when compared with the scale of the problem.
The findings come after Boris Johnson announced that schools will receive £300 million of new money for catch-up tutoring as he confirmed that closures in England will be extended until at least March 8.
The IFS notes that six months of spending of schools costs £30 billion.
The Prime Minister told MPs last week that the Government would work with schools to develop ‘a long-term plan’ to ensure pupils had the chance to make up their learning ‘over the course of this Parliament.
In an open letter to parents, carers and guardians over the weekend, Mr Johnson said he was ‘in awe’ of the way they had responded to the challenges of the pandemic and repeated the promise to provide support through catch-up programmes ‘so that nobody gets left behind’.
Last week, a study found that primary-age pupils’ reading and maths performance dropped significantly following the first round of school closures.
But the IFS paper warns that lost learning will translate into reduced productivity, lower incomes, lower tax revenues, higher inequality and ‘potentially expensive social ills’.
It argues: ’The lack of urgency or national debate on how to address this problem is deeply worrying.
‘The necessary responses are likely to be complex, hard and expensive. But the risks of spending “too much” time or resources on this issue are far smaller than the risks of spending too little and letting lower skills and wider inequalities take root for generations to come.’
It adds that it is possible that the effects of lost learning could be neutralised for those from well-off families and the long-run negative effects could be concentrated amongst those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
In June, Mr Johnson said £350 million would be spent on the National Tutoring Programme over 2020-21 to help the most disadvantaged pupils.
But the report concludes that the positive results of the scheme are unlikely to be ‘anything like enough to deal with the seismic loss in learning time.;
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at the IFS, said: ‘The inescapable conclusion is that lost learning represents a gigantic long-term risk for future prosperity, the public finances, the future path of inequality and wellbeing.
‘We therefore need a policy response that is appropriate to the scale of the problem. One useful benchmark is the £30 billion it normally costs for half a year of schooling in the UK.
‘That doesn’t mean we need to spend that much. But it does strongly suggest that the £1.5 billion allocated across the UK so far doesn’t even start to match the scale of the challenge.’
James Turner, chief executive of social mobility charity the Sutton Trust, said the months of disruption would have repercussions for many years to come.
He added: ’The IFS is absolutely right to call for substantially more education funding to address the major issues coming out of this crisis. But it is absolutely crucial that this is targeted towards disadvantaged pupils who have been the worst hit by the pandemic.’
A Government spokesperson said: ‘We will invest a further £300 million in tutoring programmes, building on the existing £1bn Covid Catch Up Fund, but the Prime Minister was clear last week that extended schools closures have had a huge impact on pupils learning, which will take more than a year to make up.
‘The Government will work with parents, teachers and schools to develop a long-term plan to make sure pupils have the chance to make up their learning over the course of this parliament.’
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source https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/01/school-closures-could-cost-pupils-40000-each-in-lifetime-earnings-13998251/