China may be emboldened by the lack of military response to Russia and invade Taiwan, a professor has warned.
Russia has launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine, so far killing at least 198 people and wounding 1,115 – both including children.
The UK and other western allies have used harsh sanctions to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin but have not sent in military help as Ukraine is not part of Nato.
Some worry the lack of armed response will show China there would be no consequences from the west if Chinese President Xi Jinping moves his troops into Taiwan.
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For the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, visit our live blog: Russia-Ukraine live
Professor of European studies at Oxford University Timothy Garton Ash told BBC Question Time: ‘[Vladimir Putin] has effectively already invaded Belarus, which is just next to Ukraine.
‘Because he put all his forces in there and they’re there for as long as he wants them to be there.
‘So I think the minimal aim of Vladimir Putin is to create a new iron curtain down the Eastern frontier of NATO so that countries like Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia will be stuck in the Russian empire whether they like it or not.’
The professor went on: ‘The other point to make… and it was a point made to me by a very senior Nato general, is Nato and the EU have had a very close relationship with Ukraine for many years.
‘Someone once said Ukraine is not in Nato but Nato is in Ukraine, Ukraine is not in the EU but the EU is in Ukraine.
‘And what this general said to me was we have all sorts of non-alliance partners all over the world. Where is our credibility going to be with them.
‘And one of them is Taiwan. And of course if someone asks a worst case scenario is Xi Jinping thinks ”well if comrade Vladimir can get away with it in Ukraine, maybe I’ll have a go in Taiwan”.’
China has long claimed Taiwan as part of its Republic but the island elects its own local government – with current officials backing complete independence.
There are few formal ties between Taiwan and the west but the US has historically supplied it with defensive weapons.
Most recently, US President Joe Biden said the country’s support for Taiwan is ‘rock solid’.
China classes Taiwan as a breakaway province and has often vowed to take it back. Beijing has increased its military presence around the island in the last two years.
Indeed, Taiwan had to scramble to ward off nine Chinese fighter hets in its air defence zone just two days ago.
The fears come as Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang joined western leaders in criticising Russia.
He told reporters: ‘We very harshly condemn such an act of invasion and will join democratic countries to jointly impose sanctions.’
Joining sanctions is largely a symbolic move, as Ukraine and Russia account for just 1% of trade in Taiwan.
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