Scientists have estimated the UK’s R rate has dipped below one in some parts of England, ushering hope that restrictions might be working.
New modelling from Cambridge University suggests the rate of transmission might be slowing down in London and the South East, where the mutant variant of the virus first began spreading.
Both areas were plunged into tier four on Saturday December 19th, meaning they were already under stay at home orders weeks before the third national lockdown was announced on January 5.
According to the data, London’s R rate could be between 0.61 and 0.80, while in the South East it could be between 0.64 and 0.84.
The R rate refers to the number of people an infected person will pass Covid on to, and experts say it must be under one for the pandemic to shrink.
The Cambridge report, released on Thursday night, said: ‘It is now possible to estimate that the Tier 4 restriction introduced on Saturday 19th December, in combination with the school holidays and reduced movements around the Christmas period, have contributed to a downward trends in Rt and the slowing down in the growth in the number of infections in most regions.’
But it added: ‘The impact of the lockdown announced on 5th January cannot yet be measured, and therefore any potential effects are excluded from the discussion of these results.’
Although the R rate has dropped in London, the Cambridge data found the number of infections is increasing in the South West and North East and plateauing in the East Midlands and North West.
It estimated the daily number of new infections across England to be 60,200 and said that while nationally the number of new cases is declining, there is a high degree of regional variation.
It also said the number of deaths was reaching that of the first wave and would be expected to peak soon. But it said this was a result of infections required pre-Christmas rather than from festive period mixing.
Despite some progress the report noted that the ‘prevalence of infection remains high and the demand on healthcare services is currently extreme’, meaning restrictions will need to stay in place ‘to lower these levels and to maintain control over transmission’.
Commenting on the data lead researcher Professor Daniela De Angelis said: ‘The combination of the Tier 4 restrictions introduced on the 19th of December and reduced activity over the Christmas period has resulted in decreased transmission, whilst the number of deaths occurring daily has reached levels comparable to the first wave in some regions.
‘These deaths result from infections acquired prior to the Christmas period and are anticipated to peak over the coming days. This work implicitly incorporates the impact of the new variant, but its presence makes any projections of how the pandemic will evolve in the near future highly uncertain. We are monitoring the situation closely.’
The Cambridge report also found the East of England, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber region also had an R rate of below one.
But it diverges from official Government estimates issued last week, which put R at between 1 and 1.4 nationally.
Another 1,248 people died with Covid in the UK on Thursday, bringing the overall death toll to 86,015, according to official data.
Meanwhile another 48,682 people tested positive.
Yesterday Professor Neil Ferguson, whose early modelling of Covid-19 made him a key player in the UK’s first lockdown, said he thought the current wave of the epidemic may be coming under control in some regions.
He told BBC Radio 4: ‘It looks like in London in particular and a couple of other regions in the South East and East of England, hospital admissions may even have plateaued, though it is hard to tell if they are coming down.
‘It has to be said this is not seen everywhere – both case numbers and hospital admissions are going up in many other areas, but overall at a national level we are seeing the rate of growth slow.’
But he said restrictions of some sort could be needed for months – and possibly until autumn – until the coronavirus vaccines provide a high level of protection.
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