Ukrainian forces will need to ‘trade space for time’ as Russian forces close in on Kyiv, according to a British military analyst.
Alex Cooper said the grim urban warfare now needed by Vladimir Putin’s troops to take Kyiv can be ‘murder’ for invading forces, and any use of heavy weaponry will ‘massively increase’ civilian casualties.
The Army veteran spoke as gunfire, explosions and air raid sirens could be heard in the capital, with unverified footage on social media showing Russian tanks a few miles to the north of the city.
Mr Cooper told Metro.co.uk that Ukraine’s best hope is to draw Russia into a widely dispersed conflict that stretches the Kremlin’s supply lines – similar to the fate that befell Adolf Hitler’s campaign during the Nazis’ invasion of the Soviet Union in World War Two.
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He said: ‘The Ukrainians have been fighting hard, if patchily, but it is an enormous country. Even forces of Ukraine’s size cannot be everywhere, and the attackers have the advantage in concentrating on specific targets.
‘It’s no surprise that Russian air and aviation forces have had virtual free reign given the relative disparity in force size, and this gives their ground forces top cover while denying Ukrainian forces the ability to move to counter them.
‘Notwithstanding the gains made by Putin’s forces, they are paying a price – but Russia is notoriously casual with the lives of people, its own and others.’
The Ukrainian military has been pulled in different directions to counter the multi-pronged attack – the biggest assault on a European country since World War Two – that is now in its second day.
‘Significant’ fighting is taking place in the area of Ivankiv, 40 miles northwest of Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian government.
‘Hopefully, President Zelenskyy has established dispersed command and control so that destruction of Kyiv’s military and government infrastructure does not decapitate Ukrainian efforts,’ Mr Cooper said.
‘Once the attackers’ intent and targets are clear and they are fixed to vital infrastructure and terrain, they become vulnerable to becoming “fixed”.
‘Trading space for time is a key facet of defence and Ukraine has plenty of space. This happened to Germany’s cost when they ran out of steam in the USSR. They underestimated the USSR’s ability to absorb damage and keep going. Momentum is key in invasions and distance brings dispersal of forces and difficulty in supply that is amplified over time.
‘So maybe this is Putin’s Operation Barbarossa – initial gains, slow down and, hopefully, eventual defeat.’
Russian forces have been advancing on Kyiv from the north during the invasion of a country that is the second largest in Europe and has a population of roughly 44 million people.
The research centre director, speaking in a personal capacity, said: ‘Cities are murder for invading forces if there is a halfway determined resistance.
‘The anti-armour weapons Ukraine has will be very effective against Russian armour. Unless the invaders have practised armour and infantry coordination very well, they will fail to protect each other. Using heavy weapons in urban centres will also massively increase civilian casualties.’
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said today that the capital has ‘entered into a defensive phase’ as Russian fighters advance.
Residents have been told to stay indoors, while others have been shown in footage taking weapons from containers.
Nick Reynolds, of the Royal United Services Institute, told Metro.co.uk that covert Russian agents and special forces within Kyiv could now prove crucial as the Kremlin tries to capture or besiege the city.
Mr Reynolds said: ‘Key indicators of whether Russian efforts to take the city will be a quick affair or a slow attritional fight, assuming that they do not simply encircle it and attempt to negotiate a surrender, will be whether their VDV [airborne forces], Spetsnaz and network of agents and assets are able to seize key infrastructure, target key leaders, or otherwise establish a foothold in the city sufficient to compromise its defence.
‘There is also a concern for the Ukrainians regarding how long their stocks of munitions will last if these are depleted unexpectedly quickly, or if Russian air strikes and ballistic missile fires are able to destroy their stockpiles or these otherwise fall into Russian hands.’
The UK’s Defence Secretary said today that Russia has so far lost more than 450 personnel and failed to take any of its major objectives.
Ben Wallace told Sky News that the British government believes Putin wants to ‘invade the whole of Ukraine’ but is behind his ‘hoped for timetable’.
Ukraine said it had suffered 137 military and civilian deaths on the first day of the conflict, with another 316 wounded.
Mr Putin today called on the Ukrainian army to overthrow the country’s ‘neo-Nazi’ government, accusing the leadership of acting like terrorists and ‘cowering behind civilians’.
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